Mining is only
one part of the map.
A deposit can diversify extraction while leaving later processing stages dependent on the same route. Assess the stage that matters to your product.
Follow the material
through the system.
The IEA’s 2026 Outlook places supply-chain resilience and diversification at the centre of mineral security. Its assessment covers processing dependencies as well as primary supply. That makes a mine-only country map an incomplete starting point.
Our interpretation
A procurement team should define its required output first, then map extraction, separation, refining and component manufacture separately. An alternate mine is useful only if the downstream route can deliver a qualified input.
Keep the denominator visible
A mining share, refining share, company share and import-source share describe different boundaries. Do not combine them into a single concentration figure or compare values from different years without explanation.
IEA — Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 ↗
16 July 2026 · CC BY 4.0 · Reviewed 5 November 2026.
Four layers of
a diversification brief.
| Layer | Evidence to record | Decision question |
|---|---|---|
| Product | Chemical identity, grade, physical form, qualification standard | What exactly must arrive? |
| Stage | Location and ownership for each relevant transformation | Which stage shares the same dependency? |
| Timing | Qualified output, transport and ramp-up assumptions | When can it replace the affected supply? |
| Buffer | Usable stock and committed alternate volumes | How much interruption remains uncovered? |
Country diversification is one dimension of resilience. Supplier ownership, shared reagents, logistics and technical qualification can create correlated dependencies.
Explore a disruption scenarioCalculate the volume.
Investigate the capability.
Use the Scenario Lab to expose a volume gap. Then test whether the alternate supply is technically and commercially credible.
Return to the value chainCSIRO — From minerals to materials: supplementary report — graphite ↗
2024-05 · Reviewed 5 November 2026.